Post-Crisis Fiscal Consolidation Strategies

 (including downloadable abstracts, papers, and presentations)

Thursday, March 24

13.00-13.15                Address of welcome

                                     Friedrich Heinemann, Bernhard Neumärker

13.15-15.15                Parallel sessions

Session 1: The Governance of Consolidation

Chair: Friedrich Heinemann

Uwe Wagschal & Georg Wenzelburger (ALU):
The pre-crisis perspective: When do governments consolidate? A quantitative analysis of 23 OECD countries (1980-2005)

Jan Voßwinkel (CEP):
The Euro Crisis from a constitutional economics perspective

Roel Beetsma (University of Amsterdam):
From First-Release to Ex-Post Fiscal Data: Exploring the Sources of Revision Errors in the EU

Session 2: Political Economy and Constitutional Consolidation of Public Debt

Chair: Bernhard Neumärker

Helmut Stix (Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Economic Studies Division):
Does the Broad Public Want to Consolidate Public Debt? - The Role of Fairness and of Policy Credibility

Nikolai Stähler (Deutsche Bundesbank /Zentrale Öffentliche Finanzen):
The Debt Brake: Business Cycle and Welfare Consequences of Germany's New Fiscal Policy Rule

Bernhard Neumärker & Stephan Wolf (ALU):
Debt Brakes and Deficit Limits: On the Constitutional Economics of Intergenerational Justice

15.15-15.40                Coffee break

15.40-17.40                Parallel sessions

Session 3: Economic Effects of Public Deficits

Chair: Jan Voßwinkel

Martin Paldam (School of Economics and Management, Aarhus University):

Comparing good and bad borrowing

Simon Tilford (Centre for European Reform, London):
Sustainable debt burdens and economic growth

Shafik Hebous (Goethe University Frankfurt):
Budget Deficit Spillover Effects in the Euro Area

Session 4: Consolidation Strategies in the Euro Area

Chair: Stephan Wolf

Demos Ioannou & Livio Straccay (ECB):
Have euro area and EU economic governance worked? Just the facts

Sebastian Hauptmeier (ECB):
Towards expenditure rules and fiscal sanity in the euro area

17.40-18.40                Keynote Jakob de Haan (University of Groningen):

                                     Do Budgetary Institutions Mitigate Political Influences on Fiscal Policy?

                                     New Empirical Evidence for the EU

20.00                           Dinner, Haus zur Lieben Hand (Casino)

                                     Afterwards: Get-together at the Martinsbräu

Friday, March 25

9.00-11.00                  Parallel sessions

Session 5: On the Relation between Fiscal and Financial Crises

Chair: Friedrich Heinemann

Marc-Daniel Moessinger (ZEW Mannheim):
Fiscal rules and risk premia in EU bond markets

António Afonso (ECB and ISEG/UTL-Technical University of Lisbon):
Credit ratings and the Euro Area sovereign debt crisis

Deniz Sevinc (Bahcesehir University, Istanbul):
Cross Country Consequences of the Financial Crisis and Regulatory Reforms

Session 6: Fiscal Policy in Crisis

Chair: Bernhard Neumärker

Veronica Grembi (Catholic University of Milan):
Do Fiscal Rules Matter? A Difference-in-Discontinuities Design

Mathias Dolls (University of Cologne):
Automatic Stabilizers and Economic Crisis: US vs. Europe

Christoph Priesmeier (Deutsche Bundesbank):
Fiscal policy over the business cycle in Germany - a tale in three acts

11.00-11.30                Coffee break

11.30-12.30                Keynote: Bernd Raffelhüschen (ALU):

                                     Public Debt: What you see is left than you have

12:30                         Lunch, Haus zur Lieben Hand (Casino)

13.30-14:30              General Meeting of the German Association of Political Economy

14:30                         End of conference